Risk Assessment Report – 27 January 2020
Risk Assessment Report – 27 January 2020
Rapid Risk Assessment
January 27, 2020
Risk Assessment Report – 27 January 2020
Time Period Covered January 27, 2020 - January 27, 2020
- There is evidence of broader geographic spread across mainland China and the rest of Asia, Australia, Europe, USA and Canada
- WHO said earlier that an animal source seemed to be "the most likely primary source" with "some limited human-to-human transmission occurring between close contacts."
- HEIC is still NOT declared but they consider it an emergency event and that they are.montoring it closely.
- WHO’s assessment of the risk of this event has not changed since the last update (22 Jan): very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level. Using the Biodiaspora tools, there’s approximately 21% to 28% risk of disease importation to ASEAN region via air travel. The risk of importation is interpreted as the probability of at least one (1) imported infected traveler in one month going to area of destination. In addition, the risk of exportation is approximately 61% to 81% which means there’s at least 1 to 2 exported infected traveler in one month. This is based in the case burden of the source region and the monthly outbound air passenger volume. Countries with more flights and seats from China are at greater risk of importing an infected traveler from China.
- Evidence supports human-to-human transmission of the virus.
o In Guangdong, two patients were infected by family members who visited
Wuhan.
- o Fifteen medical workers helping with coronavirus patients in Wuhan have also been diagnosed with pneumonia, with one in critical condition.
- o The Wuhan South China Seafood Market which sold various live animal species and may have been the source of the novel virus, was closed 01 January 2020. The increasing cases reported more recently indicate further spread through human-to-human transmission is likely to continue.
- o Further information is required to understand how readily the virus can be transmitted between infected individuals.
Risk Assessment Report – 27 January 2020